Where's the Recession?

[solidspine]

Bad News on the Horizon for the Democrats and
everyone else paid by the little taxpayer (leeches)!

Economy Expands 0.6% in First Quarter

Despite housing, credit woes, GDP actually grew!!!!!


Shrugging off doom-and-gloom predictions, U.S. economy manages to expand 0.6 percent in the first quarter







B. Hussein Obama and Mrs. Clinton both have to be really Pissed,

this is the worst thing they could have heard!!!!

The US Economy is great, bad for democrats,

[Tweak]

Agreed.


Dems are just hoping that things to go shit so that if they get elected, they can turn any good economic news into something that makes them appear heroic when it's just a load of .

[2ez2brich]

That’s not a good number my friend. U.S exports helped this number because of the weakened dollar. It's a freakin fire sale in this country. The falling value of the dollar makes U.S goods and services more desirable. Not sure about your neck of the woods…but many of the homes and goods being bought are doing so by foreign investors…..that are using their own currency no less. Another variable that added to the .6 percent is the government spending increased and remember the Fed is looking to drop interest rates yet again.

We are in a recession my friend…..this is certain. Whenever the FED/Gov is deeply involved….numbers get distorted. The old rule states that if the economy pulls back for six straight months…we are in a recession……..books have been rewritten because this didn’t happen during the 2001 recession period.

We are there bru. The stages are Recession, - Depression – Collapse…

We are at the recession stage…..heading towards the Depression.

[Fawkes]

GDp is not the reliable indicator of prosperity some claim it to be.

Ex. Married couple have a house. They get divorced. They now have to buy 2 houses - one for each of them to live in seperately. But they are now poorer. Whereas they had one house payment, they now have two - the money they now spend buying a second dwelling use to be spent on luxuries or savings. more money is being poured into the economy but the average person is poorer.

GDP often means people are poorer. At least when we are talking about everyday people.

[Fawkes]

The nice thing about economic collapse is it often brings about great world leaders.

look what happened at Germany post WW 1 - 50 % of the people were unemployed. Then Adolph Hitler came along and made the country prosperous and powerful. Almost took over the world.

Maybe this country will get an Adolph Hitler























I am being sarcastic here

[2ez2brich]

Originally Posted by Fawkes

GDp is not the reliable indicator of prosperity some claim it to be.

Ex. Married couple have a house. They get divorced. They now have to buy 2 houses - one for each of them to live in seperately. But they are now poorer. Whereas they had one house payment, they now have two - the money they now spend buying a second dwelling use to be spent on luxuries or savings. more money is being poured into the economy but the average person is poorer.

GDP often means people are poorer. At least when we are talking about everyday people.

WTF ! ! !


Hey Man…..I thought you were into the sciences ?


Leave the Economic talk to us. You big biscuit head.


But your right….hehehe GDP numbers or the old indicators are being updated.

[Fawkes]

I admit my knowledge of economics and politics is limited, but even biscuit heads like to jump in

[2ez2brich]

Originally Posted by Fawkes

I admit my knowledge of economics and politics is limited, but even biscuit heads like to jump in

Your Boy GW Bush's knowledge of economics and politics are limited too.



Al Gore was Robbed ! !

[IronSlade]

Well, I look at it this way: Warren Buffet says we are in a recession. He is smarter than the guys running the Fed, so if you ask me, we are in a recession.

I am not saying it will last or that its the fault of any particular political party, but lets not be stupid, we are in a recession.

[solidspine]

And on the foreclosure front which is predominant here in California and Florida,


It was reported 1 home out of 194 is being foreclosed,


So in my 1957 math, that is about ½ per cent. Whippy do.

[2ez2brich]

Originally Posted by solidspine

And on the foreclosure front which is predominant here in California and Florida,


It was reported 1 home out of 194 is being foreclosed,


So in my 1957 math, that is about ½ per cent. Whippy do.

The ratio you indicated is unreliable and means nothing.

It is a big deal because the lenders are so backed up, that the actual foreclosure number is not known. ...so the numbers that are being stated are far from the truth. Don't believe me.........ask someone that you know to stop paying their mortgage for about 4 months.....then call the lender and say they are having problems paying........and see what they say. The lender will try to work something out. They can't take the property back....because having this on their books or adding all these homes to their inventory is a bad thing and the balance sheets will suffer, stock prices will tank and more Fed bail outs will be necessary like with Bear Stearns. Do you not hear about all the losses being reported by the lenders. Think about it......a lender foreclosing on all properties......and holding these properties.....as the housing values continue to drop. This would collapse an already depressed housing market.

They would be stupid to take the properties back. So your 1/2% is not representative of what is actual.

Follow the markets....rates were lowered but this means little for mortgages and consumer loans.


The Fed rate has nothing to do with mortgage rates. Mortgages are sold in the MBS market....and more often than not we see rates actually go up initially when there is a fed rate cut because money moves out of the bond market and into the stock market in anticipation of a rally


So follow the markets....here's the other part of that article that mentioned the 1:194 ratio


"California still hasn't hit bottom," Sharga said. "We have a lot of California homes that are in early stages of default that may not be salvageable because either there's no market or financing available, or both."

[GFH]

wrong forum

[2ez2brich]

This was in the OT forum.....


More to do with the economy. but oh well.

[GTLifter]

We are not in a recession, a slow down but not a recession.

[2ez2brich]

LOLOLOLOLOL

that's what Bush said too....but the Fed is saying a recession.



Economy Grew in Q1? Only If You Believe in Santa Claus

Posted May 01, 2008 10:55am EDT by Henry Blodget

May 1, 2008:

The recession-deniers were out in force yesterday after the "better-than-expected!" GDP figures came out: See?

The economy GREW in Q1! We aren't in a recession! All that horrendous economic and housing data is just media hysteria!

Here's what they didn't tell you:

First, those are just preliminary numbers. Hold the champagne until the several rounds of revisions are out.

Second, 0.6% growth is horrible, especially when you consider that the population is growing at least 1%. On a per-capita basis, GDP was down.

Third, as the NY Post's John Crudele explains, the much ballyhooed "growth" was the product of three key inputs, none of which is a sign of consumer recovery (and one of which is absurd):

· Government spending (deficits),
· Inventory growth (companies buying stuff to put on shelves), and, most important,
· A 2.6% inflation assumption

Get that? To calculate that the economy grew 0.6%, the government had to assume that inflation was only 2.6%. Anyone out there who buys gas or food occasionally think that inflation is only 2.6%?

Didn't think so.

Move that inflation assumption up to even 4%, says John Crudele, and GDP in Q1 was down. For the second quarter in a row. Which makes this an official recession. As if we didn't know that already.

See Also: A "V-Shaped" Economic Recovery? You've Got To Be Kidding Me.

[solidspine]

I personally maybe in a recession,

but I just don’s see it realistically anywhere in the country.

Government numbers mean NOTHING!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! !!!!!!!! no less than nothing.


Unemployment is almost non-existent, myself not included.


Spending is nuts,

Beijing is sold out for the Olympics, whose coming, American’s

When I bought my first house (Carter years) my annual interest rate was 19 percent, fixed.

Now mortgages rates are below those prior to WW2, do any of you remember WW2. 5 is typical

Indicators are basically BS,

Bull


The single or only indicator of recession, other than inflation is employment,


Anyone here unemployed?

[Mickey]

Originally Posted by solidspine

When I bought my first house (Carter years) my annual interest rate was 19 percent, fixed.

Now mortgages rates are below those prior to WW2, do any of you remember WW2. 5 is typical

Indicators are basically BS,

Bull


The single or only indicator of recession, other than inflation is employment,


Anyone here unemployed?

No one here is unemployed and this board is a bad sampling of America. We all have computers to talk to each other on and high speed internet. You have a successful company and have a lot of money. You don't know or associate with the people that are hurting right now in this economy. I talk to these people all of the time because I have houses all over the country in poor areas. My one tenant, a landscaper, was just late on his rent because he is losing laws because his customers can't pay him. How do you think he's doing with the rising gas prices too? I have lots of other stories like this if you want me to continue, stories of people living in $12,000 houses in OH and MI that I own. Or I can can tell you about the lunch meeting I had today with the investor who told me he is negative $18,000 a month on his residential rental properties because of rising tax and insurance bills here in Florida. He is wealthy but still hurting because of the economy. He can't raise his rents to cover his costs because his tenants can't afford it. Middle America is struggling bit time, you just don't see it.